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对１９５４年以来南海登陆的热带气旋与浙北地区出梅期进行了比较系统的分析，发现热带气旋登陆造成出梅的概率占登陆热带气旋总数的５４％，在南海的北部和西北部登陆的热带气旋，使浙北地区出梅的概率远高于南海其他区域登陆热带气旋的出梅概率。通过对出海和出梅热带气旋的环流型及前期环境流场特征的对比分析，揭示出两者在西太平洋副高和西风帝系统存在着明显的差异。
A systematic analysis of the tropical cyclone landed in the South China Sea since 1954 and that of the northern part of Zhejiang Province during a comparative period has been carried out. It is found that the probability of plum landing caused by tropical cyclones accounts for 54% of the total number of tropical cyclones landed and landed in the north and northwest of the South China Sea Tropical cyclone, so that the probability of plum blossom in northern Zhejiang is much higher than that of tropical cyclone landing in other regions of the South China Sea. By comparing and analyzing the circulation patterns of the tropical cyclones at sea and out of the sea and the characteristics of the previous environmental flow field, it is revealed that there is a clear difference between the two in the western Pacific subtropical high and the Western Wind Emperor system.