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运用数理分析方法对乙醇发展对我国玉米生产和贸易的影响进行分析。研究结果表明,燃料乙醇发展可能会促进农业生产,并不会危及粮食安全。可以通过限制价格这个措施就能动态掌握好燃料乙醇发展规模,从而使其发展不危及国家粮食安全;燃料乙醇的发展可能会刺激玉米需求量的增长、玉米价格的上升,从而导致国际贸易的下滑,进一步有可能会影响到中国失去可靠的玉米供给市场,加剧供求紧张的趋势,但近期内不会影响到我国玉米供给;未来重点发展非粮乙醇。
The influence of ethanol development on corn production and trade in China is analyzed by mathematical analysis method. The findings show that fuel ethanol development may promote agricultural production without jeopardizing food security. Can limit the price of this measure will be able to dynamically grasp the scale of the development of fuel ethanol, so that its development does not endanger the national food security; fuel ethanol development may stimulate demand for corn growth, corn prices, resulting in a decline in international trade This may further affect China’s loss of a reliable corn supply market and aggravate the trend of tight supply and demand. However, it will not affect the supply of corn in the near future. In the future, it will focus on the development of non-grain ethanol.