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分析结果显示,我国经济景气从2010年2月开始进入新一轮短周期的收缩阶段且可能持续到2012年1季度,年内经济运行呈缓慢下降走势。预测全年GDP增长率为9.3%,物价上涨趋势于7月结束,全年CPI上涨5.5%左右。在本轮物价上涨过程中,货币因素的贡献最大,但已出现下降趋势;其次是需求与收入因素且影响不断提高;再次是国际与成本因素。年内宏观调控应以稳为主,避免因调控过度和欧债危机等不确定因素叠加引起经济增长的过快下滑。同时,须从多方面入手扭转实际消费增长的下降趋势。
The result of the analysis shows that the economic prosperity of our country has entered a new round of short-term contraction period from February 2010 and may continue into the first quarter of 2012 with a slow decline in economic operation during the year. The forecast annual growth rate of GDP is 9.3%. The upward trend of prices will come to an end in July. The annual CPI will rise by 5.5%. In the current round of price inflation, the monetary factor has made the greatest contribution, but has shown a downward trend; followed by demand and income factors with rising influence; and again, international and cost factors. During the year, macroeconomic regulation and control should be based mainly on stability, to avoid over-rapid economic growth caused by the combination of uncertainties such as excessive regulation and the debt crisis in Europe. At the same time, it is necessary to start from many aspects to reverse the downward trend in the growth of real consumption.