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本文基于小波降噪法对中国1986—2014年第三产业产出缺口进行了估算,发现中国第三产业产出缺口呈频繁周期性波动,但波动幅度逐渐减小。预测结果表明中国第三产业产出缺口在短期上涨后,又徘徊在零以下,呈现“两负一正”的波动周期。利用估算的第三产业产出缺口,分析各外生因素对中国产出缺口的影响,发现居民收入差距过大是影响中国第三产业产出的最大障碍,应通过税收、转移支付、完善社会保障体系等手段降低其对第三产业产出的冲击。
This paper estimates the output gap of the tertiary industry in China from 1986 to 2014 based on the wavelet denoising method. It finds that the output gap of the tertiary industry in China fluctuates frequently but fluctuates gradually. The forecast results show that the output gap of the tertiary industry in China hovering below zero after a short period of rise, presenting a “two negatives and one positive” volatility cycle. Using the estimated output gap of the tertiary industry, this paper analyzes the impact of each exogenous factor on the output gap in China and finds that the excessive income gap is the biggest obstacle to the output of the tertiary industry in China. Taxes, transfer payments and social improvement Security system and other means to reduce its impact on tertiary industry output.