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当前文献关注贷款而非存款市场利率竞争与金融风险的关联性,却普遍忽视存款利率变化可能引发的金融风险问题。本研究利用Logit模型分析存款利率对金融风险的影响,测算余额宝网上存款风险发生的概率。结果发现:存款增速对利率反应敏感且利率冲击效应为正,显示银行利率上涨将增加余额宝产品赎回风险。金融市场化改革下金融业竞争必将加剧,降低余额宝产品投资收益率进而扩大金融风险。为此,如果余额宝无可迅速变现的资产或存款准备金制度保障,余额宝产品风险不容忽视。
The current literature focuses on the relevance of loan rather than deposit interest rate competition and financial risks, but generally ignores the possible financial risk caused by changes in deposit interest rates. In this study, we use Logit model to analyze the impact of deposit interest rates on financial risks and measure the probability of the occurrence of the deposit risk on the Internet. The result shows that: the deposit growth is sensitive to the interest rate reaction and the interest rate shock effect is positive, indicating that the rise of bank interest rate will increase the risk of redemption. Under the reform of financial market, competition in the financial industry is bound to intensify, which will reduce the return on investment of balance of products and further expand financial risks. To this end, if there is no balance of treasure quickly realized asset or deposit reserve system, the balance of product risk can not be ignored.