通过借鉴LMDI分解模型及其归因分析法,从细分行业的视角对1999—2013年中国各大产业及其工业行业的碳生产率的变化进行了详细研究。研究发现,中国碳生产率在研究期内呈现出波动上升的态势,能源利用效率和能源排放比率是其上升的主导因素,而产业结构调整对其影响微乎其微;同时从工业细分行业的角度来看,能源利用效率是影响我国工业碳生产率走势的最主要因素,且贡献值较大的行业基本包括高端装备制造业或轻工业。此外受传统制造业和重化工业的影响,能源排放比率对工业碳生产率的影响由正转负,从而抑制了碳生产率的上升,而产业结构调整对工业碳生产率并未产生影响。基于以上结论,本文提出了相应政策建议。 By referring to the LMDI factorization model and its attribution analysis method, the changes of carbon productivity in major industries and their industrial sectors in China from 1999 to 2013 are studied in detail from the perspective of industry subdivision. The study found that China’s carbon productivity showed a rising trend during the study period. Energy use efficiency and energy emission ratio were the major factors in its rise. However, the impact of industrial restructuring was negligible. At the same time, from the point of view of industrial sub-sectors , Energy efficiency is the most important factor affecting the trend of industrial carbon productivity in our country, and the industries with large contribution value basically include high-end equipment manufacturing industry or light industry. In addition, influenced by the traditional manufacturing industry and the heavy chemical industry, the impact of energy emission ratio on industrial carbon productivity is negatively affected, thereby inhibiting the increase of carbon productivity, while the industrial restructuring has not had any impact on industrial carbon productivity. Based on the above conclusions, this paper presents the corresponding policy recommendations.