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应用邓聚龙教授创立的灰色理论与方法,以我国森林资源连续清查统计数据为基础,建立灰色预测的GM(1 1)模型,对全国森林资源主要指标(1)森林覆盖率;2)有林地面积;3)活立木总蓄积量)的发展趋势进行预测。由于连续清查数据具有连续性、可比性特征,因此,预测结果经检验,精度较高,可以作为宏观决策的科学依据。
Applying the gray theory and method established by Professor Deng Julong, this paper establishes a GM (1 1) model of gray forecast based on the continuous inventory statistics of forest resources in our country. The main indicators of forest resources in China are: (1) forest coverage rate; (2) forest area ; 3) the total volume of living wood volume) to predict the development trend. Due to the continuous and comparable characteristics of continuous inventory data, the forecast results are tested and the accuracy is high, which can be used as the scientific basis for macro-decision-making.