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粮价变迁与人们的生计息息相关,清代以来,在人口增长和区域分工深化的背景下,市场化因素对于粮食价格的影响日益显现。山西省作为一个重要的商贸省份,光绪(1875—1908)年间农业生产面临诸多不利因素的影响,经济作物与粮争地,种粮成本升高,粮食生产比较收益下降,同时,经济整体萧条,市面上银、钱不敷使用。而另一方面,商业资本渗透到粮食生产与流通领域,加剧了粮价波动的风险。通过对地区粮价变动趋势及相关影响因素的分析,不仅能够了解地区粮食市场的发展历程、运行机制,而且能够了解经济繁荣或衰退之于民生的影响。本文研究结果表明,光绪年间山西粮食价格经历了三次较大幅度的波动,且地域差别显著,粮价受市场供求、流通渠道及商业资本的影响逐步增强,政府行为如常平仓储对控制粮食价格波动发挥了一定的作用,但是影响日渐式微。
Since the Qing Dynasty, under the background of population growth and the deepening of regional division of labor, the influence of market-oriented factors on food prices has become increasingly evident. As an important province of commerce and trade in Shanxi Province, agricultural production in Guangxu (1875-1908) faced many unfavorable factors. The cost of cash crops and grain increased, the cost of grain production went down, and the profitability of grain production decreased. At the same time, the economic recession, Silver on the market, less money to use. On the other hand, commercial capital infiltrated into the field of food production and circulation aggravated the risk of fluctuations in food prices. By analyzing the trend of grain price changes in the region and related factors, we can not only understand the development process and operation mechanism of grain markets in the region, but also understand the impact of economic prosperity or recession on people’s livelihood. The results of this paper show that during the Guangxu period, grain prices in Shanxi experienced three major fluctuations with significant geographical differences. Grain prices were gradually affected by the market supply and demand, distribution channels and commercial capital. The government acts as usual to control grain price fluctuations Played a certain role, but the impact is declining.