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国际上普遍认为,在增加值率短期不变的假设之下,生产指数提供了增加值短期波动的一个合理估计。本文首先讨论了这一假设在指数编制中的作用,并通过测算和比较我国与G7国家服务业增加值率的波动情况,论证了在我国服务业经济中对该假设进行检验的必要性。其次,基于6个服务业行业的微观企业数据,测算和分析了增加值率的短期波动情况,探讨了增加值率波动对指数编制的影响。最后,提出了关于改进指数编制方法的建议。
It is generally accepted that, given the assumption of a short-term value-added rate of return, the production index provides a reasonable estimate of short-term fluctuations in the value added. This paper first discusses the role of this hypothesis in indexing and demonstrates the necessity of testing this hypothesis in China’s service economy by measuring and comparing the volatility of the value-added rate of service industry in China and G7 countries. Secondly, based on the micro-enterprise data of six service industries, the short-term fluctuation of value-added rate was measured and analyzed, and the impact of the value-added rate volatility on the indexing was discussed. Finally, proposals are made to improve the indexing methodology.