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运用情景模拟方法,对2012～2020年中国经济发展的前景进行模拟分析,从而分析加速益贫式增长的宏观政策调整思路。研究结果表明,在益贫式增长与危机情景下,贸易条件、汇率、利率、财政和货币政策、公共支出等宏观经济政策的调整方向与幅度对低收入人群福利、投资、消费水平均有显著影响。在面对经济危机冲击时,如何调整宏观经济政策是能否在实现经济增长同时提高低收入群体福利的关键,通过政策情景设定及模拟分析给出了方向和思路。
Using the scenario simulation method, this paper simulates the prospects of China’s economic development from 2012 to 2020, and analyzes the macro-adjustment policy of accelerating the growth of pro-poor growth. The results show that under the conditions of poor growth and crisis, the adjustment direction and magnitude of macroeconomic policies such as terms of trade, exchange rates, interest rates, fiscal and monetary policies and public expenditures have significant effects on the welfare, investment and consumption levels of low-income people influences. In the face of economic crisis, how to adjust the macroeconomic policy is the key to whether the economic growth can be realized while improving the welfare of low-income groups. The direction and train of thought are given through the setting of policy scenarios and the simulation analysis.