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运用中国123个大城市2000-2013年的面板数据,实证分析了户籍制度改革对大城市劳动力流入的影响。结果表明:从全国层面看,大城市的户籍制度改革并未吸引劳动力流入,反而促使劳动力流出,这与现有大城市户籍制度改革力度较小有关;从城市规模层面看,200万人口以下城市的户籍制度改革会促使劳动力流出,而200万人口以上城市的户籍制度改革能有效吸引劳动力流入,这说明规模越大的城市对外来劳动力越具有吸引力;从区域层面看,东部地区大城市的户籍制度改革促使劳动力流出,而中西部地区大城市的户籍制度改革促进劳动力流入,这与东部地区大城市的落户门槛与户籍管制较高和国家鼓励中西部地区大城市劳动密集型产业发展有关。
Using the panel data of 123 large cities in China from 2000 to 2013, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the household registration system reform on the labor force in big cities. The results show that: from a national perspective, the reform of the household registration system in big cities has not attracted the inflow of labor force, but has prompted the labor force to flow out. This is related to the relatively small reform of the existing household registration system in large cities. From the perspective of urban scale, cities under 2 million people The reform of the household registration system will encourage the labor force to flow out. However, the reform of the household registration system in cities of over 2 million population can effectively attract the labor force. This shows that the larger the cities, the more attractive the foreign labor force. From a regional perspective, The reform of household registration system promulgated the labor force, while the reform of household registration system in the major cities in the central and western regions promoted the labor inflow. This is related to the threshold of settling down in the major cities in the eastern region and the high household registration control and the state’s encouragement of the development of labor-intensive industries in the major cities in the central and western regions.