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基于中国29个省、259个地级以上城市在2003—2012年的面板数据,本文研究了外商直接投资(FDI)对地级市环境污染的影响。通过精确计算地级市之间的地理距离来构造空间权重矩阵,并采用空间面板的SLM模型、SEM模型来控制空间自相关性,再控制影响环境污染的关键变量如能源消费量、产业结构、资本密集度等,实证结果显示“污染避难所”假说并不成立,相反地,FDI能够显著地降低工业二氧化硫和工业粉尘的污染物排放,从而能够改善地区环境质量。除此之外,本文还在空间面板回归中检验了产出水平对环境污染的影响,结果证实了环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)确实存在,产出与环境污染呈现倒U型的关系,即随着产出的增加,环境污染会先上升,在越过拐点之后,再呈现下降的趋势。
Based on the panel data of 259 prefecture-level cities in 29 provinces of China in 2003-2012, this paper studies the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the environmental pollution in prefecture-level cities. The spatial weight matrix is constructed by accurately calculating the geographic distance between prefecture-level cities. The SLM model and SEM model of the space panel are used to control the spatial autocorrelation and control the key variables that affect the environmental pollution such as energy consumption, industrial structure, Capital intensity and so on. Empirical results show that the “pollution shelter” hypothesis does not hold. On the contrary, FDI can significantly reduce the emission of pollutants from industrial sulfur dioxide and industrial dust so as to improve the regional environmental quality. In addition, this paper also tests the effect of output level on environmental pollution in spatial panel regression. The result confirms that the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) does exist and the relationship between output and environmental pollution is inverted U-shaped. That is, with the increase of output, the environmental pollution will rise first and then decline after crossing the inflection point.