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传统资产组合理论认为,房地产资产兼具消费品投资品双重特性,有充分的对冲通胀的能力:当整体物价水平上涨时,投资者的名义资产回报率也会提高,实际资产回报率不变甚至可能提高;从而弥补了通胀带来的购买力下降抵御通胀风险。房地产是否的确具备对冲通胀的能力?国内研究尚缺乏足够证据证明这一点,而国外研究则结果各异。本文在98-09时间序列数据基础上对中国房地产资产的对冲通胀能力进行检验。结果认为尽管短期中房地产资产具备对冲预期和未预期通货膨胀能力,但在长期中,房地产资产无力冲通货膨胀,并非切实有效的抗通胀资产。
Traditional asset portfolio theory holds that real estate assets have dual characteristics of both consumer goods and investment products, and have sufficient ability to hedge inflation: when the overall price level rises, the return on nominal assets of investors will also increase, and the real return on assets may or may not change Increase; thus offsetting the decline in purchasing power brought by inflation against inflation risks. Does real estate have the ability to hedge inflation? Domestic research lacks sufficient evidence to prove this point, but foreign studies have different results. This paper examines the hedging and inflationary abilities of China’s real estate assets based on the time series of 98-09. The result is that, despite short-term real estate assets have hedged expectations and unexpected inflation, but in the long run, real estate assets are unable to inflate inflation, not an effective anti-inflationary asset.