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为解决预测魁北克流域未来流量增加的可能性,使用集总式降雨径流模型模拟径流量,将模拟量输入随机动态规划(SDP)程序,生成水库运行规则;通过优化运行规则,获得水库最高、最低控制水位条件下的最大发电量。根据优化运行规则,利用发电量模拟器预测水力发电量。对2036～2065年以及2071～2100年未来时间段的60种气候预测情景(基于23个全球气候模型以及3种温室气体排放情景)执行相同的步骤,率定过程除外;对系统中3座发电厂的每一种气候变化预测情景下的水库运行规则进行优化。根据这些模拟,即可确定上述2个时间段的水力发电量。对改进的系统,即每座发电厂增加一台水轮机后的系统,亦执行相同的步骤。结果表明,采用非工程性适应性措施(优化水库运行规则)和工程性适应性措施(增加水轮机数量)都可以增加发电量。但是,采用适应性水库运行规则就足以获取可供水量增加带来的大部分收益。
In order to solve the possibility of predicting the future increase of flow in the Quebec basin, a lumped rainfall runoff model was used to simulate runoff, and the simulation was input into the stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) program to generate the reservoir operation rules. By optimizing the operation rules, the highest and lowest reservoirs Control the maximum water level under the conditions of power generation. According to the optimized operation rules, the power generation simulator is used to predict the amount of hydroelectric power generation. The same procedure was followed for 60 climate scenarios (based on 23 global climate models and 3 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios) from 2036 to 2065 and future periods from 2071 to 2100 except for the calibration process; The plant operating rules under each climate change prediction scenario are optimized. Based on these simulations, it is possible to determine the amount of hydropower generated over the two periods. The same procedure is also applied to the upgraded system, that is, the system after adding one turbine to each power plant. The results show that generating capacity can be increased by adopting non-structural adaptive measures (optimizing reservoir operation rules) and engineering adaptive measures (increasing the number of turbines). However, adopting adaptive reservoir operation rules is sufficient to capture most of the benefits of increased water availability.