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将数值模拟成果与监测数据集成,对三峡水库库首区诱发地震危险性进行了动态评价。在GIS(geographic information system)平台上将数值模拟结果用专业地震模型进行评价,其成果作为评价背景数据库。用实时的地震监测数据、地下水位监测数据、地壳形变监测数据对背景数据库进行更新。选用FLAC3D为数值模拟工具,MAPGIS为GIS基础平台,VC++为开发工具,研发了水库诱发地震危险性动态评价系统。系统提供在一定蓄水位条件下、一定评价范围、一定深度内的水库诱发地震灾害危险性区划。研究结果表明,在GIS平台上,利用信息融合技术,可以将水库诱发地震的数值模拟评估、监测数据评估进行集成,实现水库诱发地震危险性动态评价。
The results of numerical simulation and monitoring data are integrated, and the dynamic risk of induced earthquake in the first area of Three Gorges Reservoir is evaluated. On the GIS (geographic information system) platform, the numerical simulation results are evaluated by the professional seismic model, and the results are used as the evaluation background database. The background database is updated with real-time seismic monitoring data, groundwater level monitoring data and crustal deformation monitoring data. Using FLAC3D as numerical simulation tool, MAPGIS as GIS basic platform and VC ++ as development tool, a dynamic evaluation system of reservoir-induced seismic hazard was developed. The system provides a certain depth of the reservoir within the scope of a certain assessment, induced by the earthquake hazard risk zoning. The results show that on the GIS platform, the information fusion technology can be used to integrate the reservoir-induced earthquake numerical simulation and monitoring data assessment to realize the reservoir-induced dynamic seismic hazard assessment.