利用VSD(Vulnerability scoping diagram)评估框架,改进了针对县域尺度的脆弱性评估方法和技术;以黄土高原半干旱地区的榆林市为例,对VSD框架和SERV(Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability)模型进行整合,将系统脆弱性分解为暴露、敏感性、适应能力3个维度。应用SERV模型筛选脆弱性指标,在充分理解区域地理背景和暴露风险源的基础上,构建了符合当地生态环境特征的指标体系,运用RS与GIS空间技术,定量测度了榆林市2000-2011年社会—生态系统脆弱性空间分异特征及演化趋势,探讨了脆弱性时空演化内在原因。结果显示:榆林市社会—生态系统脆弱性呈现“西北东南高,长城沿线低”的空间格局,2000-2011年间系统脆弱性程度明显降低,系统发展趋势好转,但系统脆弱性与暴露风险空间差异显著;其中,暴露风险因子是系统脆弱性演化的关键因素,区域脆弱性与暴露风险空间异质受社会敏感性和经济适应能力等因子影响。最后,采用OWA多准则算法,基于决策者不确定性偏好,模拟了不同决策风险设置下区域脆弱性未来情景,并基于决策者理性风险区间,预测了不同发展导向下区域系统脆弱性差异,为研究区可持续性评估和降低脆弱性的风险预警机制建设提供决策参考。 In the framework of Vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD), vulnerability assessment methods and techniques for county scales are improved. For the Yulin City in the semi-arid region of the Loess Plateau, the VSD framework and the SERVSpace (Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability) model are integrated , The system vulnerability is decomposed into three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity and adaptability. Applying the SERV model to filter the vulnerability index, based on the full understanding of the regional geography background and exposure to the risk source, this paper constructs an index system that is in line with the local ecological environment characteristics and uses RS and GIS spatial technology to quantitatively measure the social - Spatial Variability and Evolution Tendency of Ecosystem Vulnerability and Discusses the Internal Causes of Spatiotemporal Vulnerability of Vulnerability. The results showed that the social-ecological system vulnerability of Yulin showed a spatial pattern of “high in northwest to southeast and low in the Great Wall”. The degree of system vulnerability was significantly reduced and the system development trend improved from 2000 to 2011, but the system vulnerability and exposure risk Spatial differences are significant. Among them, the exposure risk factor is the key factor in the evolution of system vulnerability. The spatial heterogeneity of regional vulnerability and exposure risk is affected by factors such as social sensitivity and economic adaptability. Finally, the OWA multi-criteria algorithm is used to simulate the future scenarios of regional vulnerabilities under different decision-making risk settings based on the uncertainty of decision makers. Based on the rational risk interval of decision makers, the vulnerability of regional systems under different development directions is predicted as The risk assessment mechanism of risk assessment for the sustainability assessment and vulnerability reduction in the study area provides decision reference.