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为探索高速公路建设对区域发展的空间联动影响规律,在道路绩效空间溢出效应数理分析的基础上,以宁夏“同心—沿川子”高速公路项目为例,利用因子分析合成高速公路影响区县综合发展指数,选择典型道路绩效表征变量,构建道路投资绩效空间滞后模型,对“同心—沿川子”高速公路建设影响区域综合发展的空间溢出效应进行评价。结果表明:随着“同心—固原”、“固原—什字”和“什字—沿川子”3期高速公路阶段性施工通车,道路投资空间效应呈现短期正向溢出、中期负向溢出、长期均衡的动态变化规律。建议在高速公路投资决策时充分考虑区域经济活动特点,发挥交通项目建设对区域空间均衡发展的正向带动作用。
Based on the mathematical analysis of spatial spillover effect of road performance and the Ningxia Concentric-Yanchuanzi expressway project, this paper uses factor analysis to analyze the influence of freeway construction on the spatial linkage of regional development. County comprehensive development index, selecting representative variables of road performance, constructing the lag model of road investment performance space, and evaluating the spillover effect of comprehensive development of “concentric-along-Chuan-Zi” expressway construction area. The results show that the space investment in road investment presents a short-term positive spillover with the opening of phase 3 construction of the “Phase 3 Expressway” along with “Concentric-Guyuan”, “Guyuan-Shibu” and "Shichuan- Mid-term negative overflow, long-term equilibrium dynamic changes. It is suggested that full consideration should be given to the characteristics of regional economic activities in the decision-making of expressway investment so as to play a positive role in the balanced development of regional space by the construction of transport projects.