一、消费需求回升,市场趋旺三月份召开的“两会”,明确了“重点扩大消费需求,保持固定资产投资适当规模,优化投资结构,继续推动经济平稳较快发展”的战略目标,并将建设社会主义新农村作为经济发展的首要任务。随着天气转暖,各地农业、基建等经济工作的全面展开,也促使成品油消费需求回升,市场趋旺。因春耕以及各项经济工作的全面展开,促进了柴油需求逐渐走高,估计到二季度同比增长将攀升至7%左右;汽油和煤油需求近期受季节性需求下降以及价格不断走高的影响,消费需求增势有所回落,到4、5月份,随着“五一”节日旅游的增加,将带动市场需求转旺,同比增长将提高到5%左右;燃料油需求同比仍维持下降趋势。一方面,我国成品油消费需求基本保持稳步增长的格局,到二季度平均增长将达到6%左右;另一方面,近期国内又有一些大型化工品生产设备投产。这将使我国原油需求在接下来的两三个月内呈现加快增长趋势,估计同比增长将由 First, consumer demand picked up and the market was on the upswing. The “two sessions” held in March set forth the strategic objective of “focusing on expanding consumer demand, maintaining a proper scale of investment in fixed assets, optimizing the investment structure and continuing to promote stable and rapid economic development”. Building a New Socialist Countryside as a Top Priority for Economic Development. As the weather gets warmer, all over the country such as agriculture, infrastructure and other economic work in full swing, also prompted the consumer demand for refined oil pick up, the market is booming. Due to the plowing and economic development, the demand for diesel fuel has been boosted gradually. It is estimated that the second quarter will have a year-on-year increase of about 7%. The demand for gasoline and kerosene will be affected by the seasonal decline in demand and rising prices in the near future. However, with the increase of “May Day” festive tourism, market demand will be boosted up by 4 May. The year-on-year growth will be raised to about 5%. The demand for fuel oil will keep a downward trend on a year-on-year basis. On the one hand, China’s demand for refined oil products has basically maintained a steady growth pattern. By the second quarter, the average growth rate will reach about 6%. On the other hand, some large-scale chemical production equipment have been put into operation in the near future. This will enable China’s crude oil demand to show an accelerated growth trend in the next two or three months. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth will be driven by