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目的:评估浙江省二级及以上医疗机构应对流感大流行的救治能力。方法:通过问卷调查,应用Flu Surge模型估算浙江省流感大流行期间二级及以上医疗机构可能的住院患者数、死亡人数以及评估病床、ICU、呼吸机等医疗设备负担能力。结果:Flu Surge模型估算流感流行6周,罹患率为35%时,浙江省的流感患者将达到18 130 007人,门诊就诊患者9 065 003例,住院治疗患者233 453例,死亡43 108例;需占用普通病床、ICU和呼吸机分别为42%、647%和250%。结论:按照Flu Surge模型估算结果提示,浙江省二级及以上医疗机构流感大流行ICU及呼吸机数量不足,不能满足应对流感大流行的需要,需要加强医疗救治能力建设。模型结果可以作为参考依据,但同时应结合实际情况科学对待模型的估算结果。
OBJECTIVE: To assess the medical treatment capacity of secondary and above medical institutions in Zhejiang Province to cope with the influenza pandemic. Methods: By means of questionnaire survey, the Flu Surge model was used to estimate the number of hospitalized patients, the number of deaths and the affordability of medical equipment such as beds, ICU, ventilator and so on in second-class and above medical institutions in Zhejiang province during the pandemic. Results: Flu Surge model estimated flu prevalence for 6 weeks and attack rate was 35%. Zhejiang Province had 18 130 007 influenza patients, outpatient clinic 9 065 003 cases, inpatients 233 453 cases and 43 108 deaths. Need to occupy a common bed, ICU and ventilator were 42%, 647% and 250%. Conclusion: According to the Flu Surge model, the results suggest that the number of ICU and ventilator in medical institutions of secondary and higher levels in Zhejiang Province is insufficient, which can not meet the need of responding to influenza pandemic. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the medical treatment capacity building. The results of the model can be used as a reference, but at the same time, the results of the model should be scientifically treated according to the actual situation.