论文部分内容阅读
中国报业经历20年的高歌猛进之后,目前陷入了一场深刻的经营危机。以2005年为“拐点”,传统报纸停下了持续多年的上升脚步,进入一个抛物线般的下滑轨道。广告增长率从持续了20年的高位跌落下来,就是这一趋势的显著标志,同时伴随着的是年轻读者的流失和发行市场的萎缩。与此同时, 以网络为代表的新兴媒体经过十来年的指数性增长,已经接近“临界点”。未来两三年,网络媒体还将呈现爆炸式发展,媒体环境和格局将因之发生更大的变化。在这场媒体变局中,传统报纸的强势地位被从根本上动摇,市场蛋糕会越来越小。报纸为生存而进行的竞争将更加激烈,整合和转型也势在必然。在这样一个历史的交叉点上,如何正确判断当前的形势,清醒预测未来的走势,把握媒体发展的规律,采取相应的战略调整,成为一个紧迫的课题。
After 20 years of triumph in the Chinese newspaper industry, China’s newspaper industry has now plunged into a profound crisis of operations. With 2005 as the “turning point”, traditional newspapers stopped the upward spiral that lasted for many years and entered a parabolic glide path. The drop in advertising growth from a high of 20 years marks a significant sign of this trend, accompanied by a loss of young readers and a shrinking distribution market. At the same time, the emerging media represented by the Internet has approached the “critical point” after exponential growth in ten years. The next two to three years, the online media will also show an explosive development, the media environment and the pattern will be more changes. In this media change, the strong position of traditional newspapers is fundamentally shaken, the market will be getting smaller and smaller cake. The competition for survival of newspapers will become even more intense, and integration and transformation are also inevitable. At such a historical cross point, it becomes an urgent issue to correctly judge the current situation, to soberly forecast the future trend, to grasp the law of media development and adopt the corresponding strategic readjustment.