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文章通过检验券商与公司聘任同一家会计师事务所对券商旗下分析师预测行为的影响,研究了证券分析师的预测信息是否可能来源于会计师事务所。研究发现:(1)分析师更愿意跟踪与所属券商聘任同一家会计师事务所的上市公司,对其发布的盈余预测更准确,也更倾向于额外发布现金流预测。(2)券商与公司从非同聘会计师事务所变更为同聘会计师事务所,其分析师预测的准确性提高,反之则降低。分析师对与所属券商聘任同一家会计师事务所的公司在年报披露前最后一次盈余预测的准确性有更大幅度的提高。(3)同聘会计师事务所对预测准确性的促进作用集中在分析师跟踪少和收入变化大的公司以及非明星分析师发布的预测。文章的研究有助于理解同聘会计师事务所对分析师预测行为的影响,也有助于资本市场上的投资者更好地利用同聘会计师事务所的券商旗下分析师发布的预测报告,拓展了分析师预测信息来源的研究。
By examining the impact of broker-company hiring the same accounting firm on the forecasters’ behavior, the article studies whether the forecast information of securities analysts may come from the accounting firm. The study found that: (1) Analysts prefer to track the listed companies that employ the same accounting firms with their respective brokers, and they are more accurate in forecasting their earnings release and are more inclined to issue additional cash flow forecasts. (2) When the broker and the company changed from a non-employed accounting firm to a fellow accounting firm, the accuracy of their analysts’ forecasts will be higher, and vice versa. Analysts were even more able to raise the accuracy of their last earnings forecast before the disclosure of the annual report by companies with the same accounting firm that their respective brokerage firms had. (3) The contribution of the same accounting firm to the forecasting accuracy is concentrated on the forecasts released by analysts with less track and revenue changes, as well as by non-star analysts. The study of the article helps to understand the influence of the same accounting firm on the analyst’s forecasting behavior and helps investors in the capital market to make better use of the forecast reports released by the analysts in the brokerage firms that employ them and expand Analysts predict the source of the research.