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针对机载设备剩余使用寿命预测中存在的不确定性因素,建立了基于状态条件概率分布的机载设备剩余寿命模型.首先,引入状态条件概率矢量对隐马尔科夫模型(HMM,Hidden Markov Model)进行不确定性改进,并推导了其计算形式.其次,给出了近似确定状态退化转移时间的方法,由此得到了以状态条件概率矢量为协变量的条件可靠度函数及剩余寿命模型.最后,以飞机发动机温控放大器为应用对象进行仿真计算.仿真结果表明该模型预测精度高,能够较大程度地降低不确定性因素的影响.
Aiming at the uncertainty factors in predicting the remaining service life of airborne equipment, the residual life model of airborne equipment based on the state conditional probability distribution is established.Firstly, the HMM (Hidden Markov Model) ), And derive its calculation form.Secondly, a method of approximate determination of state degradation transfer time is given, and the conditional reliability function and residual life model with state conditional probability vector as covariate are obtained. Finally, the simulation calculation of aircraft engine temperature control amplifier is carried out.The simulation results show that the model has high prediction accuracy and can greatly reduce the influence of uncertainty factors.