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The woes of the EU after the most prolonged recession in modern times are， finally， at the end of their worst phase. The battle to stabilize the euro is now largely over. Mario Draghi， President of the European Central Bank， who has been at the center of many of the efforts over the last few years to supply some much-needed stability and certainty into jittery European markets， stated in an interview on January 23 that “the economy in the currency area is growing again.”
But there were still clouds in the sky， with a jobless rate across the zone of 12 percent and a growth rate of only 1.2 percent predicted in 2014. That， however， is a vast improvement over 2013， when the zone contracted by 0.4 percent.
Cautiously optimistic
This message of low-key optimism is wise. Over the last few years， there have been many false dawns. The global economic crisis of 2008 was followed in 2009 by the array of problems in the EU—in Greece， Ireland and then Portugal. As a whole， during the worst phase in 2010-11， it looked like there was a real chance the euro project might fold. Italy， one of the zone’s largest economies， came precariously close to defaulting on its debt. Seeking money on the international markets pushed Greek interest on debt up over 6 percent.
Draghi has made clear in this and other recent comments that people should not get too punch drunk now that the stabilization has happened. While it is a significant achievement that despite the worst travails， the euro zone stayed together， there are still uncertainties about the economic and political future， which jeopardize what is now being called the recovery stage.
The good news is that nations badly affected by the collapse of the construction sector and of finance like Ireland have emerged from their bailout packages and are returning to growth. Consumption in the euro zone and the EU generally is up， and confidence is returning. The UK， having implemented some of the harshest austerity measures in its history， has been given a clean bill of health by the International Monetary Fund despite earlier criticisms that its cuts in government expenditure were too deep and too fast. Growth in the last quarter of 2013 prefigures an estimated 2 percent in 2014. This is a good outcome when we look back at the predictions late in 2012 that the UK was in real danger of going into a tripledip recession.
The bad news， however， remains the same. Youth unemployment in Europe is too high. In Ireland， Spain and Portugal， there is a generation of people who have never had full time work. Jobs are precious， and competition fierce. France， one of the major economies， has been stuck in low growth and high unemployment for too long， and the attempts by President Francois Hollande to reenergize the economy with his package of measures in mid-January were criticized by some as being too little too late. The costs of welfare and inefficiency in parts of the economy in France have made it uncompetitive. This is a much deeper issue than the taxation of over 75 percent on the wealthy. French industry remains overregulated， and the agricultural sector， still so important for employment and growth， is inefficient. Hollande is fighting not just against administrative changes but also profound cultural ones. He has a hard battle ahead of him， with the lowest approval ratings of any modern French leader. Germany sits in the midst of the EU region as the one still point through the trauma of the last few years. Chancellor Angela Merkel was accused of sitting on her hands during the worst of the crisis， and only moving when all other options were exhausted to help the ailing neighboring economy of Greece， where the whole euro contagion started. Politically， however， her strategy worked. While the UK’s Prime Minister Gordon Brown， France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy and Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti were all swept away by electorates furious at their incompetence as the financial crisis in Europe spread， Merkel has remained the most formidable and secure leader， winning a third term comfortably in late 2013. Her ability to compromise， to put together coalitions and to choose the right time to act are now legendary， even if it seems likely this will be her last term in power. But Germany has also been accused of being structurally part of the whole problem， practicing mercantilist behavior， protecting its industries and largely supporting deflationary policies through its protection of the euro currency to the benefit of its own national economy. These at least were the criticisms made by the United States in 2012 and 2013.
Even with this list of issues across the EU， however， the largest problems as ever remain not economic， but political， and here the great uncertainty is the continuing ambiguity of the UK. Prime Minister David Cameron’s government has committed to a referendum on the UK staying in the EU some time after the next national election in 2017， if his party is reelected. The expectation is that such a referendum will now need to be held no matter who wins power in 2017. With the looming plebiscite in Scotland this year about continuing membership of the UK， and a possible breakup after three centuries of the union， there is a tangible possibility that the UK might politically serve the same role as Greece did economically in 2009， posing hard questions， being a source of destabilization and generally creating uncertainty.
Business figures across the sectors in the UK have produced powerful arguments for why leaving the EU and rupturing the union between Scotland and England would have a negative impact on the UK as an investment environment and on its growth. But in these matters， emotion trumps logic. The public mood in the UK is largely antagonistic to Europe， and any amount of evidence that there are clear benefits derived from membership of it are largely brushed away. For populist politicians， blaming all local ills on the EU is simply good politics. The UK is in danger of simply sleepwalking into isolation and irrelevance if it does decide to opt out. We may well have the utterly ludicrous outcome of an independent Scotland being a member of the EU， and England being out of it. Despite Cameron’s soothing， largely vacuous rhetoric therefore， the simple fact is that the UK has never suffered such a profound crisis of identity in living memory. It is unclear at the moment if the current political elite have any real solution to this.
Crucial partnerships
For the whole of Europe， inside or outside the EU， the challenge of where to seek growth remains urgent. The vocabulary of needing to find sustainability， stability and certainty， which one hears in the United States， Asia， Africa and Latin America， is ubiquitous across European capitals， and so is the allure of the vast potential growth available within emerging markets， the most central of which is China. The harsh fact is that so far， as exporters， investors and investment seekers， Europe could have done a lot better. The challenge is that in the coming decade， as China continues the transition to a middle-income society and its domestic consumption rises， Europeans have to radically up their game as service providers， exporters and business associates in engaging with their Far East partner.
One of the most important instruments to do this would be a comprehensive free trade agreement， something the EU and China are now discussing. The strategic objective for the EU is to get the best possible access into the service and consumption sector in China. Engagement with the Shanghai Free Trade Zone established last year and the ongoing liberalization and internationalization of the renminbi are key here. But Europe also needs to get more， and better， Chinese inward investment， and needs to seek higher-value strategic partnerships with companies in China for work within and outside the country. The simple fact is that Chinese investment in the EU is good， but it also offers an excellent way of finding committed partners to work within China.
Despite the huge challenges negotiating such a deal will pose， the bottom line is that it is an opportunity neither can walk away from easily. They are each other’s biggest trading partners， and while there is growth elsewhere， the simple fact is that for China and the EU， the likeliest root to long-term， sustainable good-quality growth is with each other. The relationship over the next year， therefore， will be dominated by the need to set the framework and terms for this agreement， and then find the political will to make it happen. The reality is that this will probably be easier for China than the EU.
But there were still clouds in the sky， with a jobless rate across the zone of 12 percent and a growth rate of only 1.2 percent predicted in 2014. That， however， is a vast improvement over 2013， when the zone contracted by 0.4 percent.
Cautiously optimistic
This message of low-key optimism is wise. Over the last few years， there have been many false dawns. The global economic crisis of 2008 was followed in 2009 by the array of problems in the EU—in Greece， Ireland and then Portugal. As a whole， during the worst phase in 2010-11， it looked like there was a real chance the euro project might fold. Italy， one of the zone’s largest economies， came precariously close to defaulting on its debt. Seeking money on the international markets pushed Greek interest on debt up over 6 percent.
Draghi has made clear in this and other recent comments that people should not get too punch drunk now that the stabilization has happened. While it is a significant achievement that despite the worst travails， the euro zone stayed together， there are still uncertainties about the economic and political future， which jeopardize what is now being called the recovery stage.
The good news is that nations badly affected by the collapse of the construction sector and of finance like Ireland have emerged from their bailout packages and are returning to growth. Consumption in the euro zone and the EU generally is up， and confidence is returning. The UK， having implemented some of the harshest austerity measures in its history， has been given a clean bill of health by the International Monetary Fund despite earlier criticisms that its cuts in government expenditure were too deep and too fast. Growth in the last quarter of 2013 prefigures an estimated 2 percent in 2014. This is a good outcome when we look back at the predictions late in 2012 that the UK was in real danger of going into a tripledip recession.
The bad news， however， remains the same. Youth unemployment in Europe is too high. In Ireland， Spain and Portugal， there is a generation of people who have never had full time work. Jobs are precious， and competition fierce. France， one of the major economies， has been stuck in low growth and high unemployment for too long， and the attempts by President Francois Hollande to reenergize the economy with his package of measures in mid-January were criticized by some as being too little too late. The costs of welfare and inefficiency in parts of the economy in France have made it uncompetitive. This is a much deeper issue than the taxation of over 75 percent on the wealthy. French industry remains overregulated， and the agricultural sector， still so important for employment and growth， is inefficient. Hollande is fighting not just against administrative changes but also profound cultural ones. He has a hard battle ahead of him， with the lowest approval ratings of any modern French leader. Germany sits in the midst of the EU region as the one still point through the trauma of the last few years. Chancellor Angela Merkel was accused of sitting on her hands during the worst of the crisis， and only moving when all other options were exhausted to help the ailing neighboring economy of Greece， where the whole euro contagion started. Politically， however， her strategy worked. While the UK’s Prime Minister Gordon Brown， France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy and Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti were all swept away by electorates furious at their incompetence as the financial crisis in Europe spread， Merkel has remained the most formidable and secure leader， winning a third term comfortably in late 2013. Her ability to compromise， to put together coalitions and to choose the right time to act are now legendary， even if it seems likely this will be her last term in power. But Germany has also been accused of being structurally part of the whole problem， practicing mercantilist behavior， protecting its industries and largely supporting deflationary policies through its protection of the euro currency to the benefit of its own national economy. These at least were the criticisms made by the United States in 2012 and 2013.
Even with this list of issues across the EU， however， the largest problems as ever remain not economic， but political， and here the great uncertainty is the continuing ambiguity of the UK. Prime Minister David Cameron’s government has committed to a referendum on the UK staying in the EU some time after the next national election in 2017， if his party is reelected. The expectation is that such a referendum will now need to be held no matter who wins power in 2017. With the looming plebiscite in Scotland this year about continuing membership of the UK， and a possible breakup after three centuries of the union， there is a tangible possibility that the UK might politically serve the same role as Greece did economically in 2009， posing hard questions， being a source of destabilization and generally creating uncertainty.
Business figures across the sectors in the UK have produced powerful arguments for why leaving the EU and rupturing the union between Scotland and England would have a negative impact on the UK as an investment environment and on its growth. But in these matters， emotion trumps logic. The public mood in the UK is largely antagonistic to Europe， and any amount of evidence that there are clear benefits derived from membership of it are largely brushed away. For populist politicians， blaming all local ills on the EU is simply good politics. The UK is in danger of simply sleepwalking into isolation and irrelevance if it does decide to opt out. We may well have the utterly ludicrous outcome of an independent Scotland being a member of the EU， and England being out of it. Despite Cameron’s soothing， largely vacuous rhetoric therefore， the simple fact is that the UK has never suffered such a profound crisis of identity in living memory. It is unclear at the moment if the current political elite have any real solution to this.
Crucial partnerships
For the whole of Europe， inside or outside the EU， the challenge of where to seek growth remains urgent. The vocabulary of needing to find sustainability， stability and certainty， which one hears in the United States， Asia， Africa and Latin America， is ubiquitous across European capitals， and so is the allure of the vast potential growth available within emerging markets， the most central of which is China. The harsh fact is that so far， as exporters， investors and investment seekers， Europe could have done a lot better. The challenge is that in the coming decade， as China continues the transition to a middle-income society and its domestic consumption rises， Europeans have to radically up their game as service providers， exporters and business associates in engaging with their Far East partner.
One of the most important instruments to do this would be a comprehensive free trade agreement， something the EU and China are now discussing. The strategic objective for the EU is to get the best possible access into the service and consumption sector in China. Engagement with the Shanghai Free Trade Zone established last year and the ongoing liberalization and internationalization of the renminbi are key here. But Europe also needs to get more， and better， Chinese inward investment， and needs to seek higher-value strategic partnerships with companies in China for work within and outside the country. The simple fact is that Chinese investment in the EU is good， but it also offers an excellent way of finding committed partners to work within China.
Despite the huge challenges negotiating such a deal will pose， the bottom line is that it is an opportunity neither can walk away from easily. They are each other’s biggest trading partners， and while there is growth elsewhere， the simple fact is that for China and the EU， the likeliest root to long-term， sustainable good-quality growth is with each other. The relationship over the next year， therefore， will be dominated by the need to set the framework and terms for this agreement， and then find the political will to make it happen. The reality is that this will probably be easier for China than the EU.