主要研究北京市水资源短缺影响因子,水资源短缺评价等级与预测。研究中分别用到了统计学,因子分析法等方法,得出了北京市水资源短缺风险的主要风险因子,并作出风险等级划分,对北京市未来两年风险进行预测。所得结果与实际相符;采用多层综合评价法改进模型,实现了对北京市水资源短缺风险更符合实际的一种评价模式。 Mainly to study the impact of water shortages in Beijing factor, water shortage assessment rating and forecast. In the study, statistical and factor analysis methods are used respectively to get the main risk factors of water shortage in Beijing, and to make a risk level classification to predict the risk of Beijing in the next two years. The results obtained are consistent with the actual situation. The multi-layer comprehensive evaluation method is used to improve the model, which realizes an evaluation model that is more realistic to the water shortage risk in Beijing.