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国际收支平衡是国家宏观经济目标之一,汇率被认为是调节国际收支的重要变量。本文在回顾已有文献对汇率波动和进出口贸易关系研究基础上,通过对汇率改革后自2006年起到2012年年末的有关数据进行协整分析,得出汇率变化并不是影响我国国际收支的主要因素,并根据实际影响人民币汇率变动的因素提出相应的政策建议。
The balance of payments is one of the national macroeconomic goals and the exchange rate is considered as an important variable for adjusting the balance of payments. On the basis of reviewing the existing literature on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and import and export trade, this paper carries out a cointegration analysis on relevant data after the exchange rate reform from 2006 to the end of 2012, and concludes that the exchange rate change does not affect the balance of payments The main factors, and according to the actual impact of changes in the RMB exchange rate to make the appropriate policy recommendations.