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目前中华稻蝗发生量不论是长期预报还是中期预报,均沿用铲土查卵方法进行调查,通过比较卵囊密度进行预报。此法固然有效,但不够简单,且误差也大。经对2005年至2010年系统调查资料进行统计分析,提出改用当年9月上旬初稻蝗产卵前期的田间成虫量(x)来预测翌年6月上旬末蝗蝻的发生量(y),发生量预测式为y=55.191 6+1.440 6x。新的预报方法不仅简捷,工作强度小,而且有效解决了查卵预报带来的误差,使预报更加准确。
At present, the occurrence of Oxya chinensis, both long-term and medium-term, has been investigated by shoveling methods and compared with oocyst density. This method is valid, but not simple enough, and the error is also large. Based on the statistical analysis of the data collected from 2005 to 2010, the data of the number of adults in the early stage of oviposition of early rice locust in early September of the same year (x) were used to predict the occurrence of locust (y) at the end of June next year, The amount of prediction for the y = 55.191 6 + 1.440 6x. The new forecasting method is not only simple, the work intensity is small, but also effectively solves the error brought by the ovulation forecast and makes the forecast more accurate.