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中国制造业经验学习强度的测度一直是理论界忽视的一个重要问题。文章使用一种改进的Levinsohn和Petrin(2003)半参数两阶段测度方法,率先系统测算了中国制造业的经验学习强度。研究发现,中国制造业“干中学”强度和经验扩散强度分别为0.194和0.436,这意味着成本降低率分别为12.57%和16.38%。更为重要的是,“干中学”和经验扩散呈现相互偏离的走势:一方面,“干中学”的强度逐年持续增加;另一方面,倘若以两年移动平均来衡量,经验扩散的强度则出现逐渐下降的态势。这两种走势揭示了中国制造业已经到了从技术引进和技术模仿向自主创新转变的紧迫时期。进一步地,经验扩散是中国制造业整体存在的一个系统性现象,经验扩散强度并不会随产业特征的变动而改变;相反,中国制造业的“干中学”强度在不同行业间表现出很强的异质性,这种异质性来源于行业的技术特征,这与行业内固有的产业属性紧密相关。
The measurement of the intensity of Chinese manufacturing experience learning has always been an important issue ignored by theorists. In this paper, an improved Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) semi-parametric two-stage measurement method is used to estimate the empirical learning intensity of manufacturing industry in China. The study found that the intensity of China’s manufacturing “learning by doing ” and the intensity of experience diffusion were 0.194 and 0.436 respectively, which means that the cost reduction rates were 12.57% and 16.38% respectively. More importantly, there is a tendency of deviation from “learning by doing” and experience diffusion: on the one hand, the intensity of “learning by doing” has been increasing year by year; on the other hand, if we measure by two-year moving average, experience The intensity of diffusion is gradually declining trend. These two trends reveal that the Chinese manufacturing industry has reached an urgent period of transition from technology import and technological imitation to independent innovation. Furthermore, the proliferation of experience is a systematic phenomenon existing in China’s manufacturing industry as a whole, and the intensity of experience diffusion does not change with the changes of industrial characteristics. On the contrary, the intensity of “learning by doing” in Chinese manufacturing industry shows different strengths among different industries Strong heterogeneity stems from the technical characteristics of the industry, which is closely related to the inherent industry attributes in the industry.