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本文基于向量误差修正模型,实证分析了社会资本对我国经济增长的影响。就长期而言,协整检验表明,两类社会资本度量指标(互联网上网人数、社会组织单位数)与国内生产总值存在长期协整关系;协整方程反映互联网上网人数增长1%将促进国内生产总值增长0.116%,社会组织单位数增长1%将促进国内生产总值增长1.818%。就短期而言,误差修正模型表明存在着反向的误差修正机制,保证了长期均衡关系的有效性。这对于明确社会资本对经济增长的长期影响具有重要的理论意义,对于我国发现新的经济增长点、制定发展战略具有十分重要的现实意义。
Based on the vector error correction model, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of social capital on China’s economic growth. In the long run, the co-integration test shows that there are long-term co-integration relations between the two types of social capital measures (the number of internet users and the number of social organizations) and the GDP; the cointegration equation reflects that a 1% increase in the number of Internet users will promote domestic Gross domestic product increased by 0.116%, social organization unit number increased by 1% will promote GDP growth by 1.818%. In the short run, the error correction model shows that there is a reverse error correction mechanism to ensure the validity of long-term equilibrium. This is of great theoretical significance for clarifying the long-term impact of social capital on economic growth and has very important practical significance for finding a new economic growth point and formulating a development strategy in our country.