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在分析传统预测方法不足的基础上,利用灰色支持向量机组合分析模型,以实际值与灰色模型预测值的比值序列作为支持向量机模型的输入,选取径向基函数为核函数,并通过交叉验证法选取最优参数,利用支持向量机模型分析预测比值序列,最后通过灰色模型还原为货邮吞吐量的预测值.以上海机场货邮吞吐量为例,对灰色支持向量机模型进行了实证分析,并与灰色模型、支持向量机模型进行了对比.
Based on the analysis of the shortcomings of the traditional forecasting methods, the Gray Support Vector Machine (SVM) combined analysis model is used to input the ratio of actual value and gray model predictive value as support vector machine (SVM) model. Radial basis functions are chosen as kernel functions, The optimal parameters are selected by the verification method and the prediction ratio series are analyzed by using support vector machine model, and finally the forecast value of cargo throughput is restored by the gray model.With the throughput of Shanghai Airport as an example, the gray support vector machine model is verified Analysis, and compared with the gray model, support vector machine model.