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为找到影响事故网络风险传递特性的重要参数,提出控制风险传递行为的新对策,从复杂事故系统角度着手,给出事故网络、节点免疫力、关联强度、风险传递路径等网络特性的形式化描述。基于Arena软件,构建已有事故网络的仿真模型。从节点免疫力、外界风险处置资源、关联强度和传递路径4个方面,仿真分析网络特性对事故网络风险动力学行为的影响。结果表明,提高节点免疫力、增加外界处置资源、设置关键路径中等水平关联强度,均能显著提高事故网络的风险处置能力,而非关键路径中的关联强度不是影响风险传递特性的重要参数,管理者应将资源优先配置于包含较多高度数节点的关键路径。
In order to find the important parameters that affect the risk transfer characteristics of accident network, a new strategy to control risk transfer behavior is put forward. From the perspective of complex accident system, a formal description of network characteristics such as accident network, node immunity, correlation strength and risk transmission path is given . Based on Arena software, a simulation model of an existing accident network is constructed. From four aspects of node immunity, external risk disposal resources, correlation strength and transmission path, the influence of network characteristics on the risk dynamics of accident network was analyzed. The results show that improving the immunity of nodes, increasing the external resources disposal and setting the middle level of the critical path strength can significantly improve the ability of the accident network to deal with risks. However, the correlation strength of the non-critical path is not an important parameter affecting the risk transfer characteristics. Management The resource should be prioritized on the critical path that contains the higher number of nodes.