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水库防洪预报调度方式风险分析是设计与实施水库防洪预报调度方式的重要依据,目前对此问题的研究多数为仅考虑洪水预报的狭义风险,然而水库预报调度过程中存在着多种不确定性因素.为了能够更为全面的得到水库防洪预报调度方式的综合风险率,本文分析了水文、水力、水位-库容和调度滞时4种不确定性因素及其分布特性,建立了考虑上述4种不确定性因素的水库防洪预报调度方式的水库本身和下游综合风险分析模型,采用基于拉丁超立方体抽样的蒙特卡洛方法对模型进行求解,为实施防洪调度方式提供信息支持.结合白龟山水库实例,论证了防洪预报调度方式风险率小于常规调度方式风险率,对水库及其下游是安全的,并给出满足下游防洪安全约束的最高汛限水位抬高值.
Risk analysis of reservoir flood forecasting and dispatching methods is an important basis for designing and implementing reservoir flood forecasting and dispatching methods. At present, most of the researches on this kind of reservoirs are narrow risk only considering flood forecasting. However, there are many uncertainties in reservoir forecast and dispatching process In order to obtain a comprehensive risk rate of reservoir flood forecasting and forecasting method more comprehensively, this paper analyzes four kinds of uncertainty factors and their distribution characteristics of hydrology, hydraulic power, water level - storage capacity and dispatch hysteresis, Certainty factors of reservoir flood forecasting and forecasting methods of reservoir itself and the downstream integrated risk analysis model, the model based on Latin hypercube sampling Monte Carlo method is used to solve the model for the implementation of flood control methods to provide information support.Combined with the example of Baiguishan Reservoir It is proved that the risk rate of flood control forecasting is less than the risk of conventional dispatching mode, and it is safe for the reservoir and its downstream. The highest flood limit elevation value is also provided to meet the downstream flood control safety constraints.