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“金砖四国”作为抗衡世界经济旧秩序的新生力量被寄予厚望,而四国之间政治经济的差异性使人们对其合作前景产生疑问。本文研究发现,差异性并没有阻碍它们成为紧密互动的群体,在中国核心的影响下四国经济周期形成高度的协同性和互动性。SVAR模型的脉冲响应分析显示,中国经济冲击效应对其他三国都有明显影响,并且冲击效应在4个国家中最强;方差分解显示,中国经济冲击分别可以解释巴西、印度、俄罗斯经济波动的60%、46%、27%。
The BRICs have high hopes as new entrants to countering the old order in the world economy. The political and economic differences between the four countries have raised questions about their prospects for cooperation. The study found that the differences did not prevent them from becoming close interaction groups. Under the influence of China’s core, the four countries’ economic cycles formed a high degree of synergy and interaction. The impulse response analysis of the SVAR model shows that the economic shocks in China have a significant impact on the other three countries and the strongest impact among the four countries. The variance decomposition shows that the economic shocks in China can explain the economic fluctuations in Brazil, India and Russia, respectively %, 46%, 27%.