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我国西部地区地处青藏高原和云贵高原,集中了国内绝大多数高原机场。随着西部开发的深入和西部旅游热潮的兴起,高原机场的建设将推动高原地区航空运输的发展。因此,研究未来高原机场旅客吞吐量规模具有实际意义。本文基于时间序列预测法,着重对2020年高原机场旅客吞吐量进行预测,并探讨运量增长对高原型飞机需求的影响,对我国航空运输在高原地区的发展有一定的借鉴意义。1我国高原机场现状根据中国民航局文件《航空承运人高原机场运行管理
China’s western region is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, focusing on the vast majority of high altitude airport. With the deepening of the western development and the rise of the western tourism craze, the construction of the plateau airport will promote the development of air transport in the plateau region. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the passenger throughput of the plateau airport in the future. Based on the time series forecasting method, this paper focuses on the prediction of the passenger throughput at the plateau in 2020 and the influence of the volume growth on the demand of plateau aircraft. It is of some reference to the development of China’s air transport in the plateau region. 1 China’s high altitude airport status According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China document "Air carrier Plateau Airport Operation Management