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文章采用春大豆生产潜力的宏观动态模拟模型，对山东省鲁南地区春大豆的生产潜力进行估算，并分析了在未来气候条件下，大豆生产潜力的变化情况。文章除了考虑温度、降水、ＣＯ２等因子之外，还考虑了紫外线对大豆生长、发育及产量的影响。综合研究状况表明：在未来气候条件下，山东省鲁南地区春大豆的生产潜力有下降趋势。
Based on the macroscopic dynamic simulation model of spring soybean production potential, the paper estimates the production potential of spring soybean in Lunan area of Shandong Province and analyzes the changes of soybean production potential in the future climatic conditions. In addition to considering the temperature, precipitation, CO2 and other factors, the article also considered the impact of UV on soybean growth, development and yield. Comprehensive research shows that: in the future climate conditions, the productivity potential of spring soybean in Lunan Shandong Province has a downward trend.