论文部分内容阅读
撞击极限方程是空间碎片撞击航天器风险评估的关键技术基础,描述其预测能力的预测指标有多种提法,这给依据预测指标进行撞击极限方程选择时带来较大困惑。通过对以预测概率为基础的预测正确率(包括未失效、失效、总体和安全预测正确率)和以预测直径偏差为基础的预测误差(包括绝对和相对误差)等指标的概念表述,初步规范了各指标的解析表达式,阐述了其性质、取值范围、相互关系等问题。据此,以蜂窝夹层板结构为研究对象,基于国外的131个撞击失效/未失效物理实验数据,对各预测指标在撞击极限方程系数空间上的变化特征作了进一步阐述。结果表明,预测正确率指标在系数空间跳跃变化,而预测误差指标则光滑过渡。
The impact limit equation is the key technical basis for the risk assessment of space debris impact spacecraft. There are many ways to describe the prediction index of the spacecraft impact capability, which brings more confusion to the selection of the impact limit equation based on the prediction index. Through the conceptual representation of such indicators as prediction accuracy (including failure and failure, overall and safety prediction accuracy) based on prediction probability and prediction errors (including absolute and relative errors) based on prediction of diameter deviation, preliminary specification The analytical expression of each index, expounded its nature, the range of values, the relationship between the other issues. Based on this, taking the honeycomb sandwich panel structure as the research object, based on the experimental data of 131 crash-failed / non-deactivation physical experiments abroad, the changing characteristics of each prediction index in the coefficient of impact limit equation are further elaborated. The results show that the prediction accuracy index jumps in the coefficient space, while the prediction error index is smooth transition.