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意大利本土一直是一些致力于地震活动性分析和地震前兆研究的目标区域。尽管有声称大地震之前有过一些观测结果,但仅开展过极少数系统研究,并且迄今为止几乎没有对其效果进行测试。本文我们回顾总结了意大利本土两个正式定义过的中期尺度—中等区域范围地震预报方法,即CN和M8S在意大利的应用情况。这两个不同方法的共同之处在于它们都应用了模式识别的概念,允许处理多个地震前兆集合,对地震活动进行全面系统监测以及对其预报效能进行广泛测试。意大利是针对中等地震活动同时使用M8S和CN两种方法开展例行监测的唯一地区。为使预测固有的空间不确定性和前兆识别区域定义的主观性最小化,进行了大量的努力。针对数据中不可避免的不确定性,开展了很多试验用以评估方法的稳定性。基于这些已有结果,2003年7月发起了M8S和CN预测方法的实时测试。
The Italian mainland has long been a target area for research into seismicity analysis and seismic precursors. Although there have been some observations prior to the claimed large earthquakes, only a few systematic studies have been conducted and little has been done to date to test their effectiveness. In this paper, we review and summarize two formally-defined medium-term earth-scale prediction methods in mid-Italy: the application of CN and M8S in Italy. What these two different approaches have in common is that they both apply the concept of pattern recognition, allowing for the processing of multiple sets of seismic precursors, comprehensive system monitoring of seismic activity, and extensive testing of their forecasting effectiveness. Italy is the only area to carry out routine monitoring using both M8S and CN methods for moderate seismic activities. Much effort has been devoted to minimizing the subjective nature of predictive inherent spatial uncertainty and the definition of precursor identification regions. For the inevitable uncertainties in the data, many tests have been conducted to evaluate the stability of the method. Based on these previous results, a real-time test of the M8S and CN prediction methods was launched in July 2003.