论文部分内容阅读
基于1982—2006年内蒙古地区17个小白杨物候观测站的气温以及小白杨春季和秋季物候资料,对该区小白杨春季和秋季物候的变化趋势进行了研究,分析了物候期变化与气候变暖的关系,并利用逐步回归方法建立了小白杨始花期和落叶期变化的预估模型.结果表明:1982—2006年间,研究区气温呈增加趋势,该区小白杨春季物候呈提前趋势,秋季物候呈延后趋势;小白杨始花期与冬、春季气温呈负相关,主要影响因子为3—4月的平均气温;落叶期与秋季气温呈正相关,主要影响因子为8—10月的平均气温;根据气候变化国家评估报告,未来内蒙古地区春、秋季平均气温分别升高1.5℃～5.4℃和1.2℃～4.4℃,小白杨始花期将提前3.9～17.8d,落叶期将延后3.0～12.4d.
Based on the air temperature of 17 Populus tomentosa phenological stations in Inner Mongolia during 1982-2006 and the phenological data of spring and autumn in Populus tomentosa, the trends of spring and autumn phenological changes of poplar in this area were studied. The changes of phenology and climate warming And the stepwise regression method was used to establish a prediction model of the flowering and deciduous period of Populus tomentosa.The results show that during 1982-2006, the temperature in the study area showed an increasing trend, the spring phenology of Populus euphratica showed an early trend, and the autumn phenology The trend of the initial flowering of Populus tomentosa was negatively correlated with the temperature in winter and spring, and the main influencing factors were the average temperature in March-April. The leaf temperature was positively correlated with the autumn temperature, and the main influence factor was the average temperature in August-October. According to the national assessment report on climate change, the average temperature in spring and autumn in Inner Mongolia will increase by 1.5 ℃ ~ 5.4 ℃ and 1.2 ℃ ~ 4.4 ℃ respectively in the future. The flowering season of Populus tomentosa will advance 3.9 ~ 17.8d and the deciduous period will be delayed from 3.0 ~ 12.4d .