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今年4月份以来,黄金价格结束了长达10年的牛市,一路走低,直至重要关口1100美元/盎司附近,才止跌反弹。由于黄金具有的特殊属性,市场对其未来的价格预测众说纷纭。一些人根据历史经验,认为在全球,特别是美国经济温和向好的大趋势下,熊市漫长,金价底部还未明晰;另一些人则依据生产成本决定价格理论,认为1100美元/盎司一线就是金价的底部,今后几年可谨慎看好。不同观点相互碰撞交织,导致黄金市场忐忑不安。本文依据大量翔实数据,从经济环境、金价变化历史、供需基本面、生产成本和黄金资源勘探等方面加以论述,最后得出“可谨慎看好未来金市”的结论。
Since April this year, gold prices ended a 10-year bull market, all the way down, until the important mark 1100 US dollars / ounce near before it stabilized rebound. Due to the special nature of gold, the market is divided on its future price forecasts. According to historical experience, some people think that under the general trend of a moderate economy in the United States, the bear market is long and the bottom of the gold price is still not clear. Others rely on the price theory of production cost and think the price of 1100 U.S. dollars / ounce is the price of gold The bottom of the next few years can be cautious bullish. Interactions between different points of view intertwined, leading to restless gold market. Based on a large amount of informative data, this paper discusses the economic environment, the history of the gold price change, the fundamentals of supply and demand, the production cost and the exploration of gold resources. Finally, we can conclude that we can be cautious about the future gold market.