本文在传统财务预警指标的基础上加入衡量公司盈余管理程度的预警指标,采用主成分分析和Logistic回归构建了上市公司财务危机预警模型。实证结果显示,预警模型的预测能力较为理想,能给投资者、公司管理层和债权人等相关各方提供更为明确的反映公司财务状况的信息。 Based on the traditional financial early-warning indicators, this paper adds early warning indicators to measure the extent of corporate earnings management, and uses principal component analysis and Logistic regression to build a financial crisis early warning model for listed companies. The empirical results show that the early warning model has better forecasting ability and can provide investors, managers, creditors and other related parties with clearer information that reflects the company’s financial status.