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本文采用空间面板计量分析方法,考察中国省域经济发展模式的动态演化特征。研究发现,中国省域经济增长存在显著的空间集聚效应和地区效应。在此基础上,使用空间自相关固定效应模型,对1985～2006年中国省域经济增长的趋同性进行了实证分析。结果表明,从时间演化上看,中国经济增长差异呈现先趋同后趋异再趋同的趋势,并表现出两俱乐部趋同;中国省域经济增长存在条件收敛,且收敛速度先减缓后加速。从空间演化上看,经济集聚和省域差距相伴随出现,增长过程中区域外溢显著存在,促进了经济的趋同演化。
This paper adopts the method of spatial panel econometric analysis to investigate the dynamic evolution of China’s provincial economic development patterns. The study found that there is a significant spatial agglomeration effect and regional effect in China’s provincial economic growth. On this basis, we use the model of spatial autocorrelation effect to make an empirical analysis of the convergence of the provincial economic growth in China from 1985 to 2006. The results show that from the perspective of time evolution, the differences of economic growth in China show the tendency of divergence and then convergence; the convergence of the two clubs shows convergence; the conditions of provincial economic growth in China converge and the convergence speed slows down first and then accelerates. From the perspective of spatial evolution, economic agglomeration and disparities between provinces are accompanied by the emergence of regional spillover in the process of growth, which promotes the convergence and evolution of economy.