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本文主要通过SPSS相关分析方法,从历年房地产价格指数、个人可支配收入、投资额、施工面积、销售价格等变量中,选择与销售额相关性最高的两个变量:个人可支配收入、投资额,运用回归分析和灰色预测模型理论,对1994到2005年北京房地产销售额进行追溯预测,从中选择均方误差最小的方法,预测奥运会后北京房地产的销售额;同时与其它奥运举办城市房地产经济发展状况进行横向比较,对奥运会之后北京房地产经济的发展趋势做出定性预测分析。
In this paper, we choose the two variables that have the highest correlation with sales from variables such as real estate price index, individual disposable income, investment amount, construction area and sales price in the past years through SPSS correlation analysis method: personal disposable income, investment amount , Using regression analysis and gray forecasting model theory to forecast the sales of real estate in Beijing from 1994 to 2005 retrospectively and choose the method with the smallest mean square error to forecast the real estate sales in Beijing after the Olympic Games. At the same time, Horizontal comparison of the situation, after the Olympic Games Beijing real estate economy trends to make qualitative predictions.