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“新常态”下,我国出口对经济增长的拉动作用已发生深刻变化,提质增效成为新阶段的主要特点,沿用靠汇率政策促进外贸增长将得不偿失。保持人民币汇率的市场化取向更具有积极意义,这不仅有利于产业转型升级、企业大规模“走出去”和实施“一带一路”战略,也有利于人民币国际化进程。因此,“新常态”下汇率不宜再作为基本政策工具使用,建议抓住时机进一步完善有管理的浮动汇率制,以充分发挥汇率作为价格信号的调节作用。
Under the “new normal”, the role of China’s export in stimulating economic growth has undergone profound changes. Quality improvement and efficiency enhancement have become the major features of the new phase. Using the exchange rate policy to boost foreign trade growth will not be worth the candle. Maintaining the market orientation of the RMB exchange rate is more positive. This will not only be conducive to the industrial restructuring and upgrading, the large-scale “going out” and the implementation of the “One Belt and One Road” strategy, but will also be conducive to the RMB internationalization. Therefore, it is not appropriate to use the exchange rate under the “new normal” as a basic policy instrument. It is suggested that we seize the opportunity to further improve the managed floating exchange rate system in order to give full play to the exchange rate as the regulatory role of price signals.