研究毛白杨无性系生长型与遗传力动态模型,提出试验选择时机以7、8年起为宜。估算三个地点的选择指数(I_i)分别为4.50,3.50和2.50,被选择的39、38、90、9803、001优良无性系平均材积育种增益在30%以上。预测的10—15年的育种增益高于现实评价。 The dynamic model of growth and heritability of Populus tomentosa was studied, and the timing of experiment selection was suggested to be 7-8 years. The selection indices (I_i) of the three sites were estimated to be 4.50, 3.50 and 2.50, respectively. The average gain of 39, 38, 90, 8080, 001 clones selected for breeding was above 30%. Predicted breeding gains of 10-15 years are higher than realistic assessments.