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进入新世纪以来,国内学者尝试利用RBC模型模拟中国经济波动事实并取得了一些成果。在经济增长模型基础上引入外生随机冲击、对宏观经济波动进行动态随机一般均衡分析为越来越多的经济家所采用。本文使用Hansen模型拟合波动并与VAR模型的冲击响应进行对比,并发现模型的模拟结果并不能很好的与中国经济运行状况吻合。指出Hansen模型不能与中国经济相吻合的主要原因(1)中国劳动市场供大于求的状况使得中国就业人数波动呈现出非周期性的特征;(2)中国消费面临流动性约束;在文章的最后就中国的现状和RBC研究给出建议。
Since entering the new century, domestic scholars try to use the RBC model to simulate the facts of China’s economic fluctuations and achieved some results. The introduction of exogenous and random shocks on the basis of economic growth model and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations are adopted by more and more economists. In this paper, the Hansen model is used to fit the volatility and compare with the shock response of the VAR model. The simulation results of the model are not in good agreement with the economic performance of China. It points out that the Hansen model can not match the Chinese economy. (1) The oversupply situation in China’s labor market makes the employment in China fluctuate in a non-cyclical manner. (2) China’s consumption is confined by liquidity. At the end of the article Give advice on China’s current situation and RBC research.