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目的探讨中国HIV疾病临床分期系统(简称中国系统)、WHO HIV疾病临床分期系统(简称WHO系统)、美国CDC HIV疾病临床分期系统(简称美国系统)对HIV/AIDS抗病毒治疗6个月预后的预测价值。方法比较各系统分期HIV/AIDS抗病毒治疗6个月内无预后不良生存率。计算各系统预测的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)。结果在三个系统内各分期无预后不良生存率差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。中国系统、美国系统、WHO系统及CD4细胞分层对预后不良预测的AUC分别为0.649,0.740,0.763,0.641。结论三个系统及CD4细胞分层对HIV/AIDS抗病毒治疗6个月的预后均有预测价值,但WHO系统的价值较高。
Objective To investigate the prognosis of HIV / AIDS antiviral therapy for 6 months in clinical staging system of HIV in China (referred to as China system), WHO HIV clinical staging system (referred to as WHO system), clinical staging system of HIV / AIDS in CDC (abbreviated as US system) Predicted value. Methods The non-prognostic survival rate was compared within 6 months after each system staged HIV / AIDS antiviral therapy. Calculate the predicted area under the ROC curve (AUC) for each system. Results There were significant differences between the three systems in the non-prognostic survival rate (P <0.05). The AUC of Chinese system, American system, WHO system and CD4 cell stratification to predict poor prognosis were 0.649, 0.740, 0.763 and 0.641, respectively. Conclusion The three systems and CD4 cell stratification have predictive value for the prognosis of HIV / AIDS antiviral therapy for 6 months, but the value of WHO system is higher.