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2008年金融危机以来,我国连续七次调高出口退税率。论文以1985-2009年的年度和月度数据为基础,出口退税与贸易出口的协整分析表明二者存在长期均衡关系,脉冲响应分析表明出口退税的变动短期内对出口会形成明显的冲击,引起出口的短期波动。均值T检验结果表明,2004年1月-2008年10月的出口退税政策效果显著,但由于受金融危机冲击、外部需求减少、政策效应滞后等因素的影响,2008年11月-2009年4月的政策效果不显著。
Since the financial crisis in 2008, China has raised the export tax rebate rate seven times in a row. Based on the annual and monthly data of 1985-2009, the cointegration analysis of export tax rebates and trade exports shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. The impulse response analysis shows that the export tax rebate changes have a significant impact on exports in the short term, Short-term fluctuations in exports. The mean T-test results show that the export tax rebate policy from January 2004 to October 2008 has achieved remarkable results. However, due to the impact of the financial crisis, the decrease in external demand and the lag in policy effects, the November 2008-April 2009 The effect of the policy is not significant.