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扩大中等收入者比重、构建橄榄型收入结构是我国发展新阶段的重要目标,而延长中等收入持续期又是扩大中等收入者比重的主要途径。基于1989-2011年CHNS九轮数据,在度量中等收入者的基础上,发现我国居民中等收入持续时间均值为8.97年,中位值为7年,且存在明显的负时间相依性。采用控制个体不可观测异质性特征的持续期模型分析各种影响因素,结果发现个体特征如性别、年龄、受教育程度及工作单位类型和地区特征如人均GDP、基尼系数、失业率及市场化程度等均对中等收入者持续期产生显著影响。同时,中等收入持续时间存在显著的城乡差别和区域差别。结论认为要改善低收入者的劳动力市场前景和机遇,构建覆盖城乡居民、不同单位类型居民的社会保障与福利体系,并针对不同地区的收入流动性结构特点,采取不同的区域政策。
To expand the proportion of middle-income earners and build an olive-type income structure is an important goal of our country’s new stage of development. However, extending the middle-income duration is also the main way to expand the proportion of middle-income earners. Based on the nine rounds of CHNS data from 1989 to 2011, based on the measurement of middle-income earners, we found that the mean median income of residents in China was 8.77 years with a median of seven years, and there was a clear negative time-dependent relationship. Using the duration model that controls the unobservable heterogeneity of individuals, various influencing factors were analyzed and found that individual characteristics such as gender, age, education level and type of work unit and regional characteristics such as GDP per capita, Gini coefficient, unemployment rate and marketability Degree and so on have a significant impact on the duration of middle-income people. At the same time, there are significant urban-rural differences and regional differences in middle-income duration. The conclusion is that we should improve the labor market prospects and opportunities of low-income earners, build a social security and welfare system covering urban and rural residents and residents of different types of units, and adopt different regional policies in light of the characteristics of income mobility in different regions.