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文章对近期和“十二五”期间的煤炭供需形势进行了预测。对近期发展趋势,通过分析外贸出口和投资建设的增长势头,结合季节变化,判断2011年第4季度及春节前后煤炭需求环比会稳步升高。根据中国社会经济所处的发展阶段、结构调整及可能出现的波动情况,判断“十二五”期间煤炭需求平稳增长的可能性较大,如果铁路建设进程不明显延后,2014、2015年2年煤炭供应将趋向宽松。
The article forecasts the coal supply and demand in the near term and during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. For the recent development trend, by analyzing the growth momentum of foreign trade exports and investment construction, combined with the seasonal changes, we can conclude that the coal demand will increase steadily in the fourth quarter of 2011 and before and after the Spring Festival. According to the stage of development, structural adjustment and possible fluctuations in China’s social economy, it is more likely to judge that coal demand will increase steadily during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. If the progress of railway construction is not significantly delayed, 2014,2015 Coal supply will be easing in 2 years.