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苹果绵蚜Eriosoma lanigerum(Hausmann)是我国重要的检疫性害虫,主要为害苹果、海棠等苹果属(Malus Mill.)植物。目前,该种害虫已在我国一些苹果主产区迅速扩散,并给我国的苹果产业造成了较为严重的经济损失。为了对其进行有效监控,控制其蔓延,制定合理的防治策略,本研究利用GARP和MAXENT两种生态位模型,结合其寄主地理分布,预测苹果绵蚜在我国的潜在地理分布区。研究结果表明:GARP和MAXENT预测结果相似,但前者预测面积比后者广泛。苹果绵蚜在我国的最适适生区主要分布在东北(辽宁南部)、华北(河北东、南部、北京、天津和山西南部)、华东(山东大部)、华中(河南北部)和西北(陕西中部)。另外,河北南部、山东和河南南部、甘肃东部、四川中南部、陕西大部、云南与西藏的零星地区是苹果绵蚜的中度适生区;黑龙江、吉林、新疆等20个省份(市、自治区)的全境是苹果绵蚜低度适生区或不适生区。此外,刀切法(Jackknifetest)检验结果表明,1月份平均最高温是影响苹果绵蚜分布最重要的环境变量。最后,提出几点管理苹果绵蚜的方法和防治策略,避免该种害虫传播或入侵到其它苹果产区。
Eriosoma lanigerum (Hausmann) is one of the most important quarantine pests in our country. It mainly damages Malus Mill. Plants such as apple and begonia. At present, such pests have spread rapidly in some main producing areas of apple in our country and caused serious economic losses to the apple industry in our country. In order to effectively monitor and control its spread, and to develop a reasonable control strategy, this study uses GARP and MAXENT two models of niche, combined with the geographical distribution of its host to predict the potential geographical distribution of apple aphid in China. The results show that the prediction results of GARP and MAXENT are similar, but the prediction area of the former is wider than the latter. The apple aphid in the most suitable areas in China are mainly distributed in the northeast (southern Liaoning), northern China (eastern Hebei, southern Hebei, Tianjin, southern Shanxi), eastern China (eastern Shandong), central China (northern Henan) and northwestern Central Shaanxi). In addition, sporadic areas of southern Hebei, Shandong and southern Henan, eastern Gansu, central and southern Sichuan, most of Shaanxi, Yunnan and Tibet are moderately suitable areas for cotton aphids; Heilongjiang, Jilin and Xinjiang, Autonomous regions) throughout the territory of the apple aphid low fit or discomfort area. In addition, the test results of Jackknifetest showed that the average maximum temperature in January was the most important environmental variable affecting the distribution of apple aphid in the apple. Finally, several methods and strategies for controlling apple aphids were proposed to avoid the spread or invasion of the pests to other apple producing areas.