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我国这一次调整的宏观政策目标,主要是控制通货膨胀,实现国民经济的健康增长。现在看来,调控目标基本达到,物价涨幅比预期值的10％左右要低,最近连续4个月的零售物价上涨率在8％以下。前期过度投资需求诱发的通货膨胀的翘尾巴因素基本消除,地方、部门加价攀比势头短期内基本缓解,照目前的趋势发展,今年的物价上涨率有可能维持在8％左右,同时,实际经济增长率也可能会低于8％。面对目前的形势,政府政策指导上可以有三种选择:一是继续紧缩,只是紧缩力度减弱;二是停止紧缩,维持现有格局;三是放松控制,刺激经济回升。最近,理论界和政府决策界主张第一、二种选择的人并不多,而主张放松的人有点羞羞答答,观点不明快,大家怕出现新一轮经济过热。我主张用向上微调的办法,适度放松,刺激经济回升,回升的目标还是我1994年夏季在《经济学消息报》和《学术动态》上提出的“双+目标”,即经济增长和物价上涨率均保持在10％的水平。
The objective of our macro-economic adjustment this time is mainly to control inflation and achieve the healthy growth of the national economy. Now it seems that the control target basically reached, the price increase is expected to be lower than about 10%, the recent 4 consecutive months of retail price inflation rate below 8%. The pre-exacerbation of inflation-induced inflation caused by over-investment has been basically eradicated, and the momentum of the local authorities and departments in price increases has basically eased in the short term. According to the current trend of development, the price inflation rate is likely to remain at around 8% this year. Meanwhile, the actual economic growth rate It may be less than 8%. In the face of the current situation, there are three options for guiding government policies: First, to continue to tighten but only to reduce austerity; second, to stop tightening and maintain the current pattern; and third, to relax control and stimulate economic recovery. Recently, there are not many people advocating the first and second choices in the theoretical circles and the government decision-making circles. Those who advocate relaxation are a bit shameful and repugnant. Their views are not bright and everyone is afraid of a new round of overheating. I advocate that we should moderately relax and stimulate economic recovery by finely adjusting upward. The goal of the recovery is also the “double-goal” proposed in the “Economic Information Bulletin” and “Academic Trends” in the summer of 1994. That is, economic growth and rising prices Rates are maintained at 10% level.